![]() Going back to outdoors, the 10 day-forecast is equally suitable for any sport or activity. But you shouldn’t rely on it in particular values of temperature, wind speed, etc. Forecast for 10 days can be used for the understanding of the weather conditions, so it is better to double-check it comparing different sources (weather models). So it is about 70% compared to the 1-day forecast, which is the most accurate. ![]() How accurate is the forecast for 10 days? It is logical to assume that the longer the forecast period, the less accurate it is. This is where this number of the days comes from. But our methods of weather prediction are still imperfect, so the real limit is a bit lower and equals approximately 10 days. We can’t predict the weather correctly for more than 14 days. 14 days are called the “theoretical limit” of weather prediction. That means that no matter what’s happening with the weather now, in 14 days the current situation can change in any direction. But why exactly 10 days?įrom the physical laws that describe the atmosphere dynamics, meteorologists know that the atmosphere “forgets” its current state in 14 days. And it’s the longest forecast to have accuracy. This time period is long enough to plan outdoor activities even for the next weekend. Hence there is such a thing as the duration of the forecast.ġ0 day weather forecast is the key and therefore most common among the forecasts of different durations. In other words, the forecast has time limits. The problem is that the weather cannot be predicted far into the future. Then they put this data into supercomputers that use those physical laws to turn past and current weather conditions into the weather forecast. The most modern and accurate method to predict the weather is numeric modeling. There are well-known physical laws that together can describe how the air moves and how conditions in every spot change. To collect weather data meteorologists use various instruments but mostly special observation weather stations, which are located all over the world. Weather forecast is the prediction of weather conditions that will occur in the future. There are several methods to do this. You can also see forecasts for 3, 5, 7 and 14 days, and, of course, for today and tomorrow. But what does these numbers actually mean? Could we trust a forecast for more than two weeks or even a month? In this article, you will learn what the 10 day weather forecast is, why it is considered the main one, and about other forecast durations and their accuracy. The same idea applies to the precipitation normal values, except enhanced odds forĪbove- (below-) normal precipitation values are green (brown).10 day weather forecast is the key and therefore most common among the forecasts of different durations. If the selected point is within an area of enhanced odds forīelow-normal temperatures, the shading around the normal maximum/minimum temperature will appear blue. If the selected point is withinĪn area of enhanced odds for above-normal temperatures, the shading around the normal maximum/minimum temperature will appear red. ![]() The color used to highlight the normal values (precipitation or maximum/minimum temperature) are used to delineate the category of the forecast at the point clicked. What does the highlighting around the normal precipitation or normal maximum/minimum temperature imply? ![]() What color scheme is used? The color scheme follows that of the static images for the 6-10 day forecasts and 8-14 day forecasts. Intervening values are linearly interpolated, combined with data from the COOP, and averaged over the 5-day period to createĪverage maximum/minimum temperature normals. For temperatures, monthly average maximum/minimum temperatures are assigned to theġ5th of the current month and subsequent month. These values are then summed over the 5-day period to create total precipitation normals. PRISM data are inherently available as monthly values.įor precipitation, daily average values are calculated (Monthly Total/Number of Days in Month) and combined with data from the Cooperative Observer Network (COOP). PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) normals are used in this display. Many thanks to the staff there for developing the prototype and assisting in the transition to CPC.įAQ What climatologies are used in this display? This webpage was developed in conjunction with the Weather Forecast Office in Pendleton, Oregon (WFO PDT). ![]()
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